Energy Imperium

Lead one of four states through the global energy transition, from 2026 to 2050. Three rivals play alongside you on the same map. They build, trade, sanction and remember, and every choice trades prosperity, security, leverage and the climate against each other.

From stocks to flows

Fossil fuels are stocks: finite deposits concentrated in a few places, burned once, and shipped through chokepoints. Renewables are flows: sun and wind reach almost everyone, cannot be embargoed, and are harvested by equipment. The geopolitics shift from who owns the fuel to who makes the equipment and the minerals inside it.

Five modalities of power

Relational, structural, market, financial and discursive. Each action you take uses one of them, and each behaves differently as the energy system changes. Some grow, some decay, and some are spent the moment they are used.

The power paradox

A state can hold some of the world's largest oil reserves and still suffer daily blackouts. Associated gas is flared instead of fed to power plants, the grid loses much of what it carries, cheap tariffs mean bills go unpaid, and imports from a sanctioned neighbour fill the gap. Iraq is the clearest case.

Choose your state

The scenario number fixes the world events and how your rivals behave. Give a class the same number and everyone faces the same crises and the same rivals, so the results can be compared.

The Fragile Rentier

Modelled on Iraq

Pumps over four million barrels a day yet cannot keep the lights on in summer. Flares much of its own associated gas and imports fuel and power from a sanctioned neighbour.

Strengths
Vast, cheap oil reserves and a young, fast-growing population.
Exposure
The power paradox: blackouts, a public payroll that eats the oil revenue, and import dependence.
Scored on
Prosperity 25%, security 45%, leverage 15%, climate 15%

The Petro-Superpower

Modelled on A blend of Saudi Arabia and Russia

Sits on decades of cheap oil and gas and the spare capacity that moves world prices. Every year of the transition makes those reserves worth a little less.

Strengths
Market and relational power: production quotas, pipelines, long-term contracts.
Exposure
Stranded assets. If the world moves fast, oil left in the ground is worth little.
Scored on
Prosperity 40%, security 20%, leverage 30%, climate 10%

The Hegemon

Modelled on A blend of the United States and China

Owns the chip patents, the reserve currency and the payment rails. Builds the clean-tech supply chain at scale, but imports most of the minerals it runs on.

Strengths
Structural and financial power: export controls, subsidies, sanctions.
Exposure
Critical mineral imports. A rival can squeeze the inputs your factories need.
Scored on
Prosperity 25%, security 20%, leverage 35%, climate 20%

The Critical Mineral Alliance

Modelled on Chile, the DR Congo and Indonesia

Mines the lithium, copper, cobalt and nickel that every battery and turbine needs. Most of the value is still captured by refiners abroad.

Strengths
Rising structural power as the world electrifies.
Exposure
Price swings, new battery chemistries, and conflict over land and water at the mines.
Scored on
Prosperity 35%, security 25%, leverage 30%, climate 10%

About the model

Energy Imperium is a teaching simulation, not a forecast. Its numbers are stylised and loosely calibrated so that the trade-offs have the right shape: oil prices fall as the world electrifies and rise when producers hold back, warming follows cumulative emissions, gas plants without fuel produce nothing, and coercion erodes the dependence it relies on. Rival states plan from their own interests, temperament and memory of what others have done to them.

Calibration points: the remaining 1.5°C carbon budget of about 130 GtCO₂ from the start of 2025 (Forster et al., Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024); warming of about 0.45°C per 1000 GtCO₂ (IPCC AR6); Iraq's oil output, power shortfall and gas flaring (World Bank Global Gas Flaring Tracker, IEA). The five modalities of power follow the literature on the geopolitics of the energy transformation. Map data: Natural Earth.